Ladies and Gentlemen, Start your Engines

Are you ready for some football?

While we here at HMB are clearly obsessed and primarily concerned with the Giants, we are just as pathetically attached to our beloved Niners. In the post-Terry Donahue era of Niner football (which I contend somewhat resembles post-WWII Germany), happiness and satisfaction has been a fleeting feeling. After last season's ineptitude, a renewed sense of optimism is abounding around Monster Park these days, and much of has to do with the Nolan's new crew. Chief among the early surpises has been the impressive play--and character--of rookie Michael Robinson. The former star QB/RB/WR at Penn State has displayed the skills of a powerful inside runnner, and has likely locked up the primary backup duties behind Frank Gore. Speaking of Gore, he is priming himself for a big season with the departure of now-maligned Kevan Barlow. With the emphasis on young talent and promise, there is only one conclusion and for once I'm not the only one making it: Mike Nolan is doing a good job.

While most of the so-called "experts" pick the Niners to finish last in the NFC West and among the league's worst teams, there remains hope. Deadspin has all the important NFL season forecasts for the NFC West. They remain the only one not to pick the Niners last, and even think they could become a chic pick for next year! While I won't even go that far out on a limb, at least the Niners are looking a little better nationally to some. For what it's worth, I'll give you my prognosis for the upcoming season:

• I forecast another 4-12 season. Let's put it this way: it will be very difficult for a young team with a young quarterback to win on the road, especially when the road schedule is tougher than the home one. Before the Week 7 bye, the Niners have three winnable games: at Arizona, and home against the Rams and Raiders. I think they'll win the two home games, only because the Rams probably won't come together until midseason under the new coach, and the Raiders could be extremely inept. Among the final ten I think the Niners will take down the Packers and Cardinals at home, and could up-end Detroit on the road. So you are basically looking at 4-12, possibly 5-11, and no better than 6-10. You can view the whole schedule here.
• The offense will be better than people think. Behind a new and improved offensive line, the running game should thrive and Alex Smith should be upright most of the time. But it will still become apparent that the team is lacking a #1 game-breaking option. While Vernon Davis could become that, a great receiver could make this offense explosive. If the Niners have a top-5 draft choice, do they succumb to temptation and take dazzling receiving talents in Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson or USC's Dwayne Jarrett (both juniors) despite glaring needs at defense? Time will tell.
• The pass-rush and secondary will be the team's Achilles' heels. I'm really not going out on a limb here; the cupboard is nearly bare at both spots.
• Robinson, Delanie Walker, Marcus Hudson and the two-first rounders will prove with their play that they belong in the team's future plans. From the preseason it appears that Nolan has drafted well. I believe the regular season will only reinforce what we have already seen.
  

From what you see, I have guarded optimism; the young guys will have learning curves, but at the same time show that they do belong in the NFL. Unfortunately, most of the pressure falls onto Smith's right shoulder, and it is still unclear whether he possesses the mettle to become a good NFL quarterback. This season will be vital in his development in the eyes of the organization and fan base.

This week: at Arizona. The Niners try to prove that they weren't a gift for the Cardinals to open with a win at their new stadium. While this should serve as motivation, the talent on the Cardinals, though rarely fully realized, should do the Niners in. Though the addition of Edgerrin James finally gives Arizona a proven commodity in the backfield, it is the receiving tandem of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin that will defeat the Niners. Despite expecting a heavy dose of James, the lack of reliable corners and a pass-rush will allow the Cardinals to throw at will. The offense should move the ball, but it has always had trouble punching it in, especially on the road.


The prediction: Cardinals win, 27-9.