10.13.2006

Niner Report: Um, Mercy?

This weekend's bout with San Diego will be a telling matchup for this young Niner team. After beating the 4-1 St. Louis Rams, Philadelphia sauntered into Candlestick and slapped the Niners around. The next week they were throttled on the road at Arrowhead Stadium, but returned home to a nice treat: the pathetic Oakland Raiders. Last week's win put the Niners at 2-3, and a chance to reach .500. To do so, the Niners will have to take down one of the best teams in the NFL.

The Chargers present a myriad of problems that have plagued the Niners this season:
  • They have a balanced and competent offense, which excels at protecting the quarterback and the football. In the Niners two wins, they were able to pressure the quarterback (especially against the Rams), and force turnovers (four against the Raiders). Neither team was able to expose the Niner's main defensive weaknesses: inability to produce pressure without the blitz, and an inexperienced secondary lacking playmakers. In their losses, the Cardinals and Eagles threw with ease and faced little pressure in the backfield (called it the Avian Complex). The Chiefs did whatever they wanted, as the Niner D turned into a siev. Unfortunately, the Chargers are fully equipped to do things to the Niners D that they only talk about on Law & Order: Special Victims Unit.
  • They have, arguably, the league's best defense. Shawne Merriman is a beast. As is SF product Igor Olshansky from St. Ignatius (I meet him when he was high school and he was HUGE then). Fortunately, the Niners won't have to dodge any Steve Foley bullets; he is out for the year after getting shot by police in the preseason. The secondary is good, but the Chargers dominate because they put pressure on the quarterback.
  • They have Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson, the two best players at their respective positions in the NFL.
This whole game has the makings of another Niner massacre. The offensive line is a mess (will Jonas Jennings ever play a freaking game?), and there are just better players on the blue and gold sideline. One thing working in the Niners favor: at least they aren't coached by Marty Schottenheimer.

This game features a good matchup of young quarterbacks, and also pits two of the top rushers in the NFL against one another (oh, I went there). While Frank Gore did win an award for last week's performance, he is still a humble admirer of the great LT.

The only way I see the 49ers winning this game is if the Chargers are still beaming from taking down the Super Bowl Champs, and overlook this week's game. If the Chargers come to play, the only way to beat them will be to reign in LT and force Philip Rivers to screw up, which is easier theorized than done. Rivers is still only starting his sixth NFL game, and has yet to lay a real stinker, so rattling his cage will be imperative if the Niners want to have a chance. There is no way the Niners can win a shootout, so ball-control--and security (you listening Frank Gore?)--will be vital.

In the end, the Chargers have too much for the Niners to handle. As San Fran has shown this year, they can beat bad teams, but when they play the real teams in the NFL (not the Raiders) they just don't have the players to compete. Knowing this squad, they won't quit, but I don't think they are capable of taking down one of the premier teams in the NFL. I hope they prove me wrong.

Prediction: Chargers 27-10 (and if you don't believe me, look at the ESPN Madden simulation; it's like the hand of God).
Season: 5-0.

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