Truly Slim Pickings?

In yesterday's Chronicle Kevin Lynch criticized 49er management, specifically formal general manager Terry Donahue, for making poor first round draft selections. Lynch points out that in terms of job security, it's actually better to be a late round pick, evidenced by the lengthy stays of Eric Heitmann (seventh round, '02) and Eric Johnson (seventh, '01), among others.

Rashaun Woods (first round pick in '04) didn't last long in San Francisco. (It's unknown whether his jersey had any karma left over from its previous owner.)

Some points of contention:

• Lynch takes for granted the ability to draft star-caliber talent in the first round. Ask the Detroit Lions how they feel about quarterback Joey Harrington, or check in with the Baltimore Ravens about their recently drafted signal caller, Kyle Boller. The list continues: Ron Dayne failed to stick with the New York Giants, and Peter Warrick hardly made a lasting impression on the Cincinati Bengals. The NFL Draft is a gamble; some players pan out and stick, others don't and still stick because they represent such a large investment of money and pride (read: David Carr and hopefully not Alex Smith). The 49ers hardly seem cursed on the first draft day any more than other teams.

• Comparing the tenures of first round and late round draft picks presents a number of complications. We pay more attention to the former and less to the latter, so when a seventh round pick stays, it's a story. Likewise for a first round bust. For every Heitmann there's a Julian Peterson, a shrewd first round pick that lived up to his lofty status. For every Arnaz Battle (personal site, beware you are entering the Battle Zone), a Bryant Young. Yes, I realize I'm delving into the history books a bit. There is also only one first round pick, while a slew of "later" round picks can fill potential holes, so the odds of either staying with the team even out somewhat. Nevertheless, human bias and natural interest skew the perception in favor of the news surrounding the early pick.

One problem in evaluating the current situation is that the typical 49er fan has been spoiled by a winning tradition. Those swagger teams were partly built on shrewd early-round drafting--Jerry Rice (personal site), Ronnie Lott, Dana Stubblefield, Harris Barton--but who can discount the contributions of Merton Hanks (fifth round, '91), Jesse Sapolu (eleventh, '83) and Eric Davis (second, '90) in bringing five rings to the franchise?

Highlights from the '94 NFC Championship Game (note: Davis and Sapolu are huge in this game)

Surprise. Success on the football field boils down to smart personnel decisions, whether in the draft or in the free agent / trade market. Recent 49er management has been poor, but the failure of the team can hardly be attributed solely to draft day; ineptitude bleeds to all facets of the team, from ownership down to coaching. Looking ahead, let's hope the Niners can count Smith and Vernon Davis (college profile) among their first round prizes. But don't forget about other late round draft "surprises" in Heitmann and Johnson and (hopefully) Frank Gore, also.